US Vice President J.D. Vance's visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan signals two important changes: the diminishing significance of Moscow's declared spheres of influence and the weakening of Russia's position in the South Caucasus, writes the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The center emphasizes that, despite the Trump administration's desire to improve relations with Russia, the United States is confirming its intention to play an active role in the region, which the Kremlin considers its "near abroad."

According to CEPA's findings, Moscow's reaction to the visit was revealing: Russian media expressed "disappointment, frustration, and a sense of helplessness," linking Russia's weakening position to its involvement in the war against Ukraine. It notes that Washington is actively expanding its presence in traditionally Russian spheres of influence, particularly in the area of ​​peaceful nuclear cooperation.

The nuclear energy cooperation agreement signed between Armenia and the United States, which envisages the modernization of the Metsamor nuclear power plant or the construction of new modular reactors, was a significant blow to the Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom, CEPA emphasizes.

"An equally important achievement for the United States was the progress in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After the August summit in Washington, the United States assumed a more active mediating role, effectively ousting Russia from the negotiation process," the analysts note.

In their opinion, given the accumulated grievances against Russian policy, Baku and Yerevan see Washington as a more neutral and predictable partner, reflecting the general trend of declining trust in Russia as a guarantor of security in the region.