On October 11, the International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook report, forecast that the Armenian economy will grow by 7% by the end of 2022. In June, the IMF forecast Armenia's GDP growth at 5%. The estimates of the Central Bank of Armenia are even more optimistic: the head of the Central Bank, Martin Galstyan, said that GDP will grow by 12.9% due to the influx of Russians fleeing the war in Ukraine and mobilization.
“We see a 25% increase in human capital in the IT sector. Talented, well-educated people are moving to Armenia, which can have a lasting effect,” Galstyan noted.
According to preliminary data, Armenia's GDP has already grown by 13% in the second quarter of this year. At the end of the year, growth will be 12.9%, and inflation will be about 10%, according to the September forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic.
The head of the Central Bank admitted that such GDP growth was unexpected for many experts - back in the summer, the forecast for economic growth in Armenia for 2022 was 1.6%. According to Galstyan, the Central Bank expected a possible collapse of the Russian economy, a decrease in the volume of remittances, which could lead to a decline in GDP.
“But there were members of the Central Bank Council who admitted that Russians could start moving to Armenia. And the influx of human capital will contribute to GDP growth. At that moment, this did not seem likely... Now we see a huge influx of Russians and expect 13% economic growth this year,” concluded the head of the Central Bank of Armenia.
According to Rosstat, from January to September 2022, 49 thousand people moved from Russia to Armenia. The head of the Ministry of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan said that this year about 300 large companies and 2,500 small companies with Russian capital were registered in the country. Trade turnover with Russia increased by 50% and amounted to $1.65 billion.
The situation is similar in Georgia. According to the President of the National Bank of Georgia, Koba Gvenetadze, double-digit economic growth is expected in the country by the end of the year: if the government’s basic forecast assumed GDP growth in 2022 by 8.5%, now the figure has increased to 10%.
According to the official, this is thanks to the Russians who came to Georgia, who stimulate consumer demand. Thus, according to realtors, the cost of renting an apartment in Tbilisi has risen 5-10 times, and the cost of housing in Tbilisi and Batumi has increased by an average of $300 per square meter.
The Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that from January 1 to September 30, 112,733 Russian citizens entered Georgia and continue to remain on its territory. This is 3.05% of the population of Georgia.
According to the National Agency of State Register of Georgia, from March to mid-October, Russian citizens registered 711 legal entities in Georgia. 9,789 Russian citizens received the status of individual entrepreneurs.
Between March 1 and October 12, 2,585 citizens bought 2,964 apartments with a total area of 189,084 square meters. 252 Russian citizens purchased 249 land plots in Georgia with a total area of 37.9 hectares. Including 61 land plots without buildings and structures, the rest have buildings and structures. According to Georgian legislation, foreigners can only purchase land for non-agricultural purposes.
According to the Ministry of Labour, Health and Social Protection of Georgia, from January 1 to August 1 of this year, 1,493 foreigners were employed in Georgia. 977 of them are citizens of Russia.